Real-time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes

Many enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real-time. We describe a family of statistical models that address these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to predict future economic conditions to make tactical (short-term) decisions, such as product pricing, and strategic (long-term) decisions, such as level of finished goods inventories. Our models characterize economic conditions, called economic regimes, in the form of recurrent statistical patterns that have clear qualitative interpretations. We show how these models can be used to predict prices, price trends, and the probability of receiving a customer order at a given price. These “regime†models are developed using statistical analysis of historical data, and are used in real-time to characterize observed market conditions and predict the evolution of market conditions over multiple time scales. We evaluate our models using a testbed derived from the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM), a supply chain environment characterized by competitive procurement and sales markets, and dynamic pricing. We show how regime models can be used to inform both short-term pricing decisions and longterm resource allocation decisions. Results show that our method outperforms more traditional shortand long-term predictive modeling approaches.dynamic pricing;trading agent competition;agent-mediated electronic commerce;dynamic markets;economic regimes;enabling technologies;price forecasting;supply-chain

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Multi-Agent Automated Exchanges

We show how an autonomous agent can use observable market conditions to characterize the microeconomic situation of the market and predict future market trends. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, such as product mix and production planning. We develop methods to learn dominant market conditions, such as over-supply or scarcity, from historical data using Gaussian mixture models to construct price density functions. We discuss how this model can be combined with real-time observable information to identify the current dominant market condition and to forecast market changes over a planning horizon. We forecast market changes via both a Markov correction-prediction process and an exponential smoother. Empirical analysis shows that the exponential smoother yields more accurate predictions for the current and the next day (supporting tactical decisions), while the Markov correction-prediction process is better for longer term predictions (supporting strategic decisions). Our approach offers more flexibility than traditional regression based approaches, since it does not assume a fixed functional relationship between dependent and independent variables. We validate our methods by presenting experimental results in a case study, the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management.dynamic pricing;machine learning;market forecasting;Trading agents

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Multi-Agent Automated Exchanges

We show how an autonomous agent can use observable market conditions to characterize the microeconomic situation of the market and predict future market trends. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, such as product mix and production planning. We develop methods to learn dominant market conditions, such as over-supply or scarcity, from historical data using Gaussian mixture models to construct price density functions. We discuss how this model can be combined with real-time observable information to identify the current dominant market condition and to forecast market changes over a planning horizon. We forecast market changes via both a Markov correction-prediction process and an exponential smoother. Empirical analysis shows that the exponential smoother yields more accurate predictions for the current and the next day (supporting tactical decisions), while the Markov correction-prediction process is better for longer term predictions (supporting strategic decisions). Our approach offers more flexibility than traditional regression based approaches, since it does not assume a fixed functional relationship between dependent and independent variables. We validate our methods by presenting experimental results in a case study, the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management

Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes

We present a computational approach that autonomous software agents can adopt to make tactical decisions, such as product pricing, and strategic decisions, such as product mix and production planning, to maximize profit in markets with supply and demand uncertainties. Using a combination of machine learning and optimization techniques, the agent is able to characterize economic regimes, which are historical microeconomic conditions reflecting situations such as over-supply and scarcity. We assume an agent is capable of using real-time observable information to identify the current dominant market condition and we show how it can forecast regime changes over a planning horizon. We demonstrate how the agent can then use regime characterization to predict prices, price trends, and the probability of receiving a customer order in a dynamic supply chain environment. We validate our methods by presenting experimental results from a testbed derived from the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM). The results show that our agent outperforms traditional short- and long-term predictive methodologies (such as exponential smoothing) significantly, resulting in accurate prediction of customer order probabilities, and competitive market prices. This, in turn, has the potential to produce higher profits. We also demonstrate the versatility of our computational approach by applying the methodology to prediction of stock price trends

Real-time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes

Many enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real-time. We describe a family of statistical models that address these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to predict future economic conditions to make tactical (short-term) decisions, such as product pricing, and strategic (long-term) decisions, such as level of finished goods inventories. Our models characterize economic conditions, called economic regimes, in the form of recurrent statistical patterns that have clear qualitative interpretations. We show how these models can be used to predict prices, price trends, and the probability of receiving a customer order at a given price. These “regime” models are developed using statistical analysis of historical data, and are used in real-time to characterize observed market conditions and predict the evolution of market conditions over multiple time scales. We evaluate our models using a testbed derived from the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM), a supply chain environment characterized by competitive procurement and sales markets, and dynamic pricing. We show how regime models can be used to inform both short-term pricing decisions and longterm resource allocation decisions. Results show that our method outperforms more traditional shortand long-term predictive modeling approaches

How Haptic Size Sensations Improve Distance Perception

Determining distances to objects is one of the most ubiquitous perceptual tasks in everyday life. Nevertheless, it is challenging because the information from a single image confounds object size and distance. Though our brains frequently judge distances accurately, the underlying computations employed by the brain are not well understood. Our work illuminates these computions by formulating a family of probabilistic models that encompass a variety of distinct hypotheses about distance and size perception. We compare these models' predictions to a set of human distance judgments in an interception experiment and use Bayesian analysis tools to quantitatively select the best hypothesis on the basis of its explanatory power and robustness over experimental data. The central question is: whether, and how, human distance perception incorporates size cues to improve accuracy. Our conclusions are: 1) humans incorporate haptic object size sensations for distance perception, 2) the incorporation of haptic sensations is suboptimal given their reliability, 3) humans use environmentally accurate size and distance priors, 4) distance judgments are produced by perceptual “posterior sampling”. In addition, we compared our model's estimated sensory and motor noise parameters with previously reported measurements in the perceptual literature and found good correspondence between them. Taken together, these results represent a major step forward in establishing the computational underpinnings of human distance perception and the role of size information.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH grant R01EY015261)University of Minnesota (UMN Graduate School Fellowship)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Graduate Research Fellowship)University of Minnesota (UMN Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (NIH NRSA grant F32EY019228-02)Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Awar

Neuromatch Academy: Teaching Computational Neuroscience with Global Accessibility

Neuromatch Academy (NMA) designed and ran a fully online 3-week Computational Neuroscience Summer School for 1757 students with 191 teaching assistants (TAs) working in virtual inverted (or flipped) classrooms and on small group projects. Fourteen languages, active community management, and low cost allowed for an unprecedented level of inclusivity and universal accessibility

Combining Path Integration and Remembered Landmarks When Navigating without Vision

This study investigated the interaction between remembered landmark and path integration strategies for estimating current location when walking in an environment without vision. We asked whether observers navigating without vision only rely on path integration information to judge their location, or whether remembered landmarks also influence judgments. Participants estimated their location in a hallway after viewing a target (remembered landmark cue) and then walking blindfolded to the same or a conflicting location (path integration cue). We found that participants averaged remembered landmark and path integration information when they judged that both sources provided congruent information about location, which resulted in more precise estimates compared to estimates made with only path integration. In conclusion, humans integrate remembered landmarks and path integration in a gated fashion, dependent on the congruency of the information. Humans can flexibly combine information about remembered landmarks with path integration cues while navigating without visual information.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant T32 HD007151)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant T32 EY07133)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant F32EY019622)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EY02857)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EY017835-01)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant EY015616-03)United States. Department of Education (H133A011903

Structure Learning in Human Sequential Decision-Making

Studies of sequential decision-making in humans frequently find suboptimal performance relative to an ideal actor that has perfect knowledge of the model of how rewards and events are generated in the environment. Rather than being suboptimal, we argue that the learning problem humans face is more complex, in that it also involves learning the structure of reward generation in the environment. We formulate the problem of structure learning in sequential decision tasks using Bayesian reinforcement learning, and show that learning the generative model for rewards qualitatively changes the behavior of an optimal learning agent. To test whether people exhibit structure learning, we performed experiments involving a mixture of one-armed and two-armed bandit reward models, where structure learning produces many of the qualitative behaviors deemed suboptimal in previous studies. Our results demonstrate humans can perform structure learning in a near-optimal manner